Since I can't get the 4MB OBS recording I made to you, I'll explain what it contains instead.
Shows playing back the 31 minute recording at 16:57.
After entering the second commercial block, at 17:24, using the mouse cursor I try to seek forward to 20:46 but instead it jumps back to 17:22, this is shown happening 6 times.
I then try to seek forward to 20:43 and it works.
Edit Commercials on that recording shows the second commercial block is from 17:22 to 20:53.
Perhaps by viewing this screen recording I made you'll pick up on some subtleties by examining frame-by-frame when the seek should be happening. I don't know how to explain these, but if you saw them you could probably figure out what's going on.
Here's 3 frames showing from start of seek to where it jumps back.



And these appear in the middle of the screen while the skips are failing.
